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Welcome to Prediction Daily
Where stats turn into stories, and every trend has something to say.
Latest reads for you
CFTC Sues Utah Over Kalshi Enforcement Push
The agency says Utah's gambling laws are preempted, days after the state sued Kalshi and Susquehanna over event contracts.
New York Takes Kalshi Subpoena Fight To Court
The state Gaming Commission says Kalshi has refused key document requests on sports contracts, ads and under-21 users.
CFTC Pauses Novig And ProphetX Sports Contracts
The CFTC reportedly flagged manipulation risk in first-points micro contracts and said scorigami contracts are not swaps.
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Inside every issue
Kalshi, Polymarket and the rules around them
Courts, the CFTC, launches, partnerships and volume records, plus the markets worth watching.
The lead story
The week's most consequential story: what happened, who said what, and what comes next.
From the Sept. 25 issue
Prediction markets could look considerably different a decade from now. Bernstein projects annual volume could reach $10 trillion by 2035, up from an estimated $410 billion in 2026.
Top 5 Markets
Five live markets worth watching, with the current leader and its odds.
From the Sept. 25 issue
Fed decision in October?
The gap continues to widen, with traders expecting an increase of 25 bps (67%) over no change in rates (33%).
Debuts & Movers
New listings, big price swings and the week's curiosities, from awards shows to upcoming games.
From the Sept. 25 issue
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Challenger Nithya Raman (58%) has overtaken incumbent Karen Bass (42%) as the favorite on Kalshi.
Our Take
One idea that ties the week together: what happened, why, and what it means.
From the Sept. 25 issue
Our Take: The road to $10 trillion doesn't necessarily require prediction markets to dominate finance. It requires them to become relevant enough to claim a small piece of something enormous.
News to Know
Five more stories from five different outlets, one line each.
Prediction Daily
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