> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://prediction-daily.ghost.io/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Brennan Center Study Finds Market Odds Sway Voters - URL: https://prediction-daily.ghost.io/brennan-center-study-finds-market-odds-sway-voters/ - Published: 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-25T18:05:18.000Z - Description: In a Brennan Center survey, a candidate at 84% on Kalshi was about 20 points likelier to be picked to win than one at 50%. - Author: Kevin Stott The Brennan Center for Justice has put numbers on a question that has followed prediction markets into the midterms: do the odds change what voters believe? In an analysis published Oct. 20, the center reported that Kalshi's odds shifted how voters judged candidates' chances about as much as polls did, and more than the candidate background traits it tested. Election Day is Nov. 3, less than two weeks away. Author Yeji Lee [wrote](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/new-study-finds-prediction-markets-are-influencing-voters-and-voters-want?ref=prediction-daily.ghost.io) that voters' perceptions of candidates are "influenced by an undemocratic, untrusted source." The analysis draws on a nationally representative survey of 1,994 registered voters fielded Sept. 21\. Each respondent compared five pairs of hypothetical congressional candidates, with each candidate's chance of winning drawn from NBC News polling and from Kalshi. Poll numbers and market odds were varied at random, so researchers could see what happened when the two disagreed. The effects were sizable. A candidate shown at 67% on Kalshi was about 10 percentage points more likely to be picked as the likely winner than one shown at 50%, and an 84% rating added about 20 points. Low odds cut the other way: a 33% rating lowered selection by about 11 points, and a 16% rating by about 19\. Warning respondents about prediction markets did not reduce how much they relied on the odds. Voters did not fully trust what moved them, either. Only 19% called election prediction markets accurate, against 37% for polls, and 29% said the markets reflect public opinion, against 55% for polls. On policy, 48% of respondents wanted stronger regulation, 23% wanted some types of contracts banned and 16% wanted all of them banned, while 14% wanted no regulation. The center concluded that stronger regulation is necessary. The analysis notes that election odds now reach the public through partnerships with outlets such as CNN, CNBC and Fox News, and it cites Reuters in putting wagering on the 2026 midterms above $220 million. It also says Minnesota enacted a law banning Kalshi and Polymarket this year, but a federal judge blocked it before it took effect. Neither company is quoted in the analysis. Caveats apply. The experiment used hypothetical candidates in a single survey, and it measured perception, not whether the odds were right. Still, it gives critics evidence that prices themselves can shape a campaign, which could matter as lawmakers and courts decide who should oversee these contracts. ## Top 5 Markets ### Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms The market prices party control of Congress after the midterms, with Election Day on Nov. 3. Polymarket ### Fed Decision in October The Federal Reserve announces its October rate decision on Oct. 28, and this market tracks whether it holds or moves. Polymarket ### What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026 This market asks how high Bitcoin will trade at any point during 2026. Polymarket ### World Series Winner The Brewers and Rays open the World Series on Friday, Oct. 23, and this market prices the champion as Game 1 approaches. Polymarket ### Prime Minister of Israel after the next election Israelis vote on Oct. 27, and this market asks who will be prime minister after the election. Polymarket ## Debuts, Movers & Trending Markets ### Brazil Presidential Election Brazil's presidential runoff is Sunday, Oct. 25, making this one of the nearest-dated election markets on the board. Polymarket ### Texas Senate Election Winner Ken Paxton and James Talarico are in a race that Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both rate a toss-up, per DeFi Rate. Polymarket ### Los Angeles Mayoral Election RG.org's Oct. 21 Polymarket roundup listed Nithya Raman among the day's biggest movers in the race for Los Angeles mayor. Polymarket ### Next James Bond actor The market's "no Bond chosen" outcome was among the larger 24-hour movers in RG.org's Oct. 21 Polymarket roundup. Polymarket ### GTA VI launch trailer views in week 1 This market settles Oct. 22 on first-week views of the GTA VI launch trailer, and RG.org's Oct. 21 Polymarket roundup flagged it as a top mover. Polymarket ## Scale Meets Scrutiny This week's news pairs record trading with sharper questions about what that trading does. Prediction markets cleared $11 billion in a single weekend for the first time, a study of voters found Kalshi's odds shape views of candidates, and a senator plans a bill that would require state or tribal approval for sports contracts. Growth, influence and jurisdiction now belong to one argument. **Activity:** Prediction markets passed $11 billion in notional volume over the Oct. 17-18 weekend, according to Aldrin Research data reported by Covers. On Oct. 20 the Brennan Center published its voter study, and on Oct. 21 SBC Americas reported, citing Bloomberg Law, that Sen. Ted Cruz plans to file a bill after the midterms. **Drivers:** Weekend football is feeding the volume, and the midterms are feeding attention. Election odds now appear alongside news coverage, according to the Brennan analysis, which raises the stakes for how people read them. Coverage of the sports fight has centered on whether the contracts are swaps or bets. **Insight:** The sports fight has centered on what the contracts are. The Brennan findings ask what the prices do to people who never trade. That could move part of the debate from jurisdiction to influence, a question that states, tribes and Congress can raise without waiting for the courts. **Our Take:** Volume records and regulatory pressure are not opposites. They are the same trend seen from two sides. A bigger audience for the odds means a bigger audience for critics, and the Brennan survey suggests many voters are skeptical of the numbers they are reading. Platforms that want election markets to last will need to explain their prices as well as defend their legal status. Trust is part of the product. ## News to Know Prediction markets topped $11 billion in notional volume over the Oct. 17-18 weekend for the first time, with Kalshi posting back-to-back $4 billion days, Aldrin Research data shows. [Covers](https://www.covers.com/industry/prediction-sites-produce-first-11-billion-weekend-oct-19-2026?ref=prediction-daily.ghost.io) has the details. Sen. Ted Cruz plans to file a bill after the Nov. 3 midterms requiring state or tribal approval for prediction market sports contracts, according to Bloomberg Law. [SBC Americas](https://sbcamericas.com/2026/10/21/cruz-state-control-sports-contracts/?ref=prediction-daily.ghost.io) explains. Bloomberg, citing anonymous sources, says Founders Fund had Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan repay private flight and rent costs; Polymarket says the flights were for business and he disclosed expenses proactively. [RG.org](https://rg.org/news/prediction-markets/polymarket-ceo-coplan-repaid-expenses-founders-fund?ref=prediction-daily.ghost.io) has the details. Novig and Crypto.com have filed separate federal lawsuits against Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway, whose office sent cease-and-desist letters on sports event contracts. [The Lines](https://www.thelines.com/prediction-markets/industry-news/crypto-dot-com-novig-push-back-against-missouri-prediction-market-threats/?ref=prediction-daily.ghost.io) breaks down the changing landscape. A Supreme Court ruling that sports event contracts are not swaps would not make them illegal nationwide, but would leave state law as the deciding factor, one analysis argues. [DeFi Rate](https://defirate.com/news/prediction-markets-us-supreme-court-what-happens-rules-sports-event-contracts-not-swaps/?ref=prediction-daily.ghost.io) takes a look. The week's through-line is attention. Trading reached new highs, voters showed they notice the odds, and one senator plans a bill on who regulates the contracts behind them. The midterms are 13 days away, and the Cruz bill is not expected until after them. Until then, courts and campaigns will keep testing the same question from different angles: what are these prices telling people, and who gets to oversee them? The answers will not wait for Election Day.