> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://prediction-daily.ghost.io/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # CFTC Pauses Novig And ProphetX Sports Contracts - URL: https://prediction-daily.ghost.io/cftc-pauses-novig-and-prophetx-sports-contracts/ - Published: 2026-10-23T10:00:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-25T18:06:40.000Z - Description: The CFTC reportedly flagged manipulation risk in first-points micro contracts and said scorigami contracts are not swaps. - Author: Kevin Stott The CFTC has told two exchanges to hold off on listing sports contracts they had already self-certified. Novig and ProphetX received letters this week asking them not to list the products and to explain why the markets comply with the Commodity Exchange Act, Front Office Sports reported on Oct. 22\. Neither company had listed the contracts yet, so no one had traded them. The move suggests the agency is willing to use the gap between self-certification and launch to push back. "Any derivatives contract offered by a CFTC-regulated exchange must be compliant with the Commodity Exchange Act," a CFTC spokesperson [said](https://frontofficesports.com/article/novig-prophetx-told-to-pause-scorigami-micro-contract-plans/?ref=prediction-daily.ghost.io) in a statement. The agency told Novig that its micro contracts, such as bets on who scores the first points in a basketball game, are susceptible to manipulation. It told ProphetX that its "scorigami" contracts, which would pay out on a final score that has never occurred before in a sport's history, do not meet the Act's definition of a swap, according to the report. ProphetX said agency staff "requested that we voluntarily defer listing the Scorigami contracts pending further review, not that we withdraw them," a spokesperson told Front Office Sports. The company said it complied and has since provided additional analysis. Novig did not immediately respond to requests for comment, Legal Sports Report noted. Exchanges can self-certify and list contracts without advance approval, so the CFTC can still act after the fact. It is unclear what the agency would do if either company declined to comply. For those keeping score at home, the letters fit a wider pattern. Front Office Sports reported last month that the CFTC had sent letters to platforms including Kalshi, Polymarket, Rothera and Novig seeking information on their incentive programs. The NFL told the Supreme Court earlier this month that the CFTC and operators including Kalshi had resisted its requests to remove contracts vulnerable to manipulation, according to Legal Sports Report. On Thursday at the NEXTPredict conference in New York, CFTC Enforcement Director David Miller said the agency wants large offshore platforms operating in the U.S. to register. He also said, "We want to make sure that the FTXs don't happen again." Front Office Sports also reported that senior CFTC officials have told companies including DraftKings and FanDuel that they risk similar action if they list micro contracts. How Novig and ProphetX respond, and whether the agency repeats the move, could show whether self-certification stays a quick route to market. ## Top 5 Markets ### Which party will win the House in 2026? House-control markets drew about $27 million across four operators in October through Oct. 20, DeFi Rate reported, with Election Day on Nov. 3. Polymarket ### Fed Decision in October The decision lands next week, and CoinDesk reported that Robinhood's largest September event contract was tied to the Fed rather than sports. Kalshi ### What price will Bitcoin hit October 19-25? This weekly range market runs through Sunday. Robinhood's JB Mackenzie said Thursday that crypto contracts have shrunk from a week to a day to 15 minutes. Polymarket ### Pro Baseball Champion The World Series opens Friday in Milwaukee, with the Brewers hosting the Rays in Game 1 at 8 p.m. ET on Fox. Kalshi ### Steelers vs. Saints Sunday's game at Stade de France in Paris kicks off at 9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network, DeFi Rate noted. Kalshi ## Debuts, Movers & Trending Markets ### Texas Senate Election Kalshi trading on the race passed $35 million, more than four times the volume on its Ohio Senate market, DeFi Rate reported Oct. 21. Kalshi ### Ohio Governor A Ramaswamy ad drew Republican criticism, and JD Vance told critics to stop complaining and win the race. Kalshi's market has about $3.6 million traded. Kalshi ### Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory Brazil's runoff is Sunday. Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula's 45.16%, according to official figures. Polymarket ### NFL MVP Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has rebounded from a rough start, totaling 878 passing yards and 11 touchdowns over his last three games, Sports Illustrated reported. Kalshi ### Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Israel votes Tuesday, Oct. 27, and the Jerusalem Post reported on Oct. 19 that the prime minister market had drawn about $46 million in volume. Polymarket ## From Whether To What Much of the fight over prediction markets has been about whether they can operate at all. This week's news was about what they may list and who may support them. A federal regulator questioned two contracts before launch, a state regulator pressed its licensees, and lawmakers in Washington drafted bills and wrote letters. The debate is moving from permission to detail. **Activity:** The CFTC told Novig and ProphetX to hold two self-certified sports contracts, and Ohio's Casino Control Commission gave its licensees until Oct. 30 to confirm they have stopped supporting unlicensed prediction markets. Sen. Richard Blumenthal and Reps. Paul Tonko and Valerie Foushee also sent VIP-program letters to Kalshi, Polymarket and four sportsbooks. **Drivers:** Sports leagues are pushing. One source told Front Office Sports that Novig's and ProphetX's markets draw the most negative feedback from pro leagues, and the NFL has argued to the Supreme Court that sports event contracts belong under state regulation. Split appeals-court rulings on Kalshi's sports contracts leave the question open, so regulators are acting through licensing, letters and legislation. **Insight:** The CFTC's letters show that self-certification can be checked without a court or a final rule, one contract at a time. Ohio's warning targets a different choke point: the market makers, integrity monitors and technology providers that prediction markets use. Either approach could shape what reaches customers well before any Supreme Court ruling on who regulates sports contracts. **Our Take:** The CFTC claims exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts. This week it started exercising that authority at the product level, reading the list before the first trade. Exchanges that want federal standing should expect more of it, and the leagues, states and lawmakers pushing from the other side are not going away. A market that can be listed quickly can be questioned just as quickly. Speed now has a cost. ## News to Know Kalshi, Polymarket and their founders have given at least $5 million to Republican and Democratic political groups this election cycle, with $2.7 million going to Republicans. [Reuters](https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/polymarket-kalshi-expand-political-donations-100653982.html?ref=prediction-daily.ghost.io) has the scoop. Sen. Ted Cruz plans to introduce a bill after the midterms that would let states and tribes decide whether prediction markets can offer sports and other gambling-related contracts. [SBC Americas](https://sbcamericas.com/2026/10/21/cruz-state-control-sports-contracts/?ref=prediction-daily.ghost.io), citing Bloomberg Law, takes a look. Ohio Sen. Bill DeMora's Senate Bill 430 would bring prediction markets within the scope of sports gaming, while Senate Bill 479 would prohibit betting on elections. [Ohio Capital Journal](https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2026/10/23/ohio-policymakers-wrestle-with-prediction-markets-as-wagers-on-sports-and-politics-explode/?ref=prediction-daily.ghost.io) explains. Robinhood's JB Mackenzie said bitcoin, gold and crude oil price-volatility contracts are among its fastest-growing prediction markets, with crypto contract lengths shrinking from a week to 15 minutes. [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/23/robinhood-sees-surge-in-bitcoin-gold-prediction-markets-as-traders-move-beyond-sports?ref=prediction-daily.ghost.io) has the details. Midterm election trading on Kalshi, Polymarket US, ForecastEx and Gemini reached $103.87 million in October through Oct. 20, up from about $41 million over the same stretch of September. [DeFi Rate](https://defirate.com/news/texas-senate-house-control-drive-october-surge-midterm/?ref=prediction-daily.ghost.io) breaks down the numbers. The week's through-line was scrutiny of the details. The CFTC questioned two contracts before a single trade, Ohio leaned on the businesses around the markets, and lawmakers pressed on VIP perks and weighed limits on sports contracts. The larger legal fight over who regulates event contracts continues. The next markers are close. Novig and ProphetX owe the CFTC an explanation, Ohio's licensees must answer by Oct. 30, and responses to the VIP letters are due Nov. 5\. The rules are being written one contract at a time. The menu is now the battleground.